The Muriels are Coming

I've been lucky enough (it certainly wasn't based on my prolific output) to be invited to participate in this year's Muriel Awards, which are organized by Paul Clark to honor the year's best films and filmmakers, by the most knowledgeable and opinionated people around: amateur movie bloggers (okay, there are some professionals in there too).

Among the awards given out are the 50th/25th/10th Anniversary Awards, for the best films released in 1958, 1983, and 1998 (based on New York release dates). Since those lists don't involve my frantically catching-up on 2008 titles before the deadline, here are my top-five lists for those respective years.

UPDATE 2/5/09:
Lists slightly revised to accomodate the actual rules of the Muriels - the movies are organized by actual release dates, not U.S. dates, so I'm removing Fanny and Alexander from my 1983 list since it's a 1982 film.

1958:
1. Vertigo (Alfred Hitchcock)
2. Touch of Evil (Orson Welles)
3. Mon Oncle (Jacques Tati)
4. I Bury the Living (Albert Band)
5. Elevator to the Gallows (Louis Malle)

1983:
1. Videodrome (David Cronenberg)
2. Koyaanisqatsi (Godfrey Reggio)
3. The King of Comedy (Martin Scorsese)
4. A Christmas Story (Bob Clark)
5. The Right Stuff (Philip Kaufman)

1998:
1. The Thin Red Line (Terrence Malick)
2. Saving Private Ryan (Steven Spielberg)
3. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (Terry Gilliam)
4. The Big Lebowski (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
5. Rushmore (Wes Anderson)

Nominations Aftermath

Okay, so there were some surprises. I underestimated the Academy's preference for WWII/Nazi-centered films, which partially accounts for The Reader getting nominations for Best Picture and Director. I disliked Stephen Daldry's last film (The Hours) and based on middling reviews, I've been ignoring The Reader, so now I guess I need to go see it.

Everybody figured The Dark Knight would get a Best Picture nomination, and we were all surprised, but I'm also glad that the throngs of rabid nerds who were expecting the Academy to validate their latest fetish object have been denied. That said, I think The Dark Knight is better than any of the three nominated films that I've seen, which means that, unusually, there isn't a single nominated film this year that I'm strongly in favor of, as has been the case in ever year for this last decade.

Otherwise, nominations that made me happy:

Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke for Best Actor (tough call here - but since Penn already has an Oscar, I'm rooting for Rourke).

Melissa Leo for Best Actress - a good performance in a film I figured would be overlooked.

Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr. for Supporting Actor - neither will win, but both are terrific performances that the Academy could have easily snubbed.

Penelope Cruz and Marisa Tomei for Supporting Actress - Now that Tomei has gotten her third Oscar nomination, we can probably retire the idea that her My Cousin Vinny win was a mistake.

In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky for Best Original Screenplay.

Encounters at the End of the World and Man on Wire for Best Documentary.

Alexandre Desplat for Best Score, and Wally Pfister for Cinematography.

My biggest disappointments: no nominations for Sally Hawkins, Rosemarie DeWitt, or Bruce Springsteen.

As for my predictions, I got 33 right out of 45 predictions (73% right).

Oscar Predictions

It's so close to the announcement that the only real purpose of this will be to make me look wrong, but whatever:

BEST PICTURE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

These five have been locked in for a while. Possible upset: Doubt bumps out The Dark Knight.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Another locked-in group. Possible upset: Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino.

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

A lot of people are pulling for Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, but I just don't think he has the juice or starpower - if there's an upset it's Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road bumping out Brad Pitt.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Again, some people think Melissa Leo has a chance her, but I figure her reward is in the Indie Spirit Awards - but if she bumps someone, it'll be Blanchett. One upset I hope I don't see here: Angelina Jolie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

I'd love to see James Franco here for Pineapple Express, but it's more likely that he could bump out Shannon, for his Milk performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

A big part of me doesn't really think that both Adams and Davis from Doubt will get nominations - Davis gives the stronger performance, but Adams has her budding starpower and cuteness (and a prior nomination) on her side. If either goes, it'll be Davis, ejected by Kate Winslet for The Reader. Some say Debra Winger could squeeze in here, but I find that unlikely as her role isn't showy enough, and she's not considered to be a real Hollywood insider with a lot of connections.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
David Hare, The Reader
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

The Dark Knight could pop up here and replace The Reader, but I don't see Academy voters voting so directly for comic book source material.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
J. Michael Straczynski, Changeling

I figure that the Academy will want to toss Changeling something, somewhere, so why not this category. I'd love it if the Coens or Mike Leigh could squeeze in here, but neither seems likely.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Harris Savides, Milk

After this point I start to get bored - I haven't seen any of the films on the Foreign shortlist, and only three on the Documentary shortlist, so they get a big who-knows.

Oscar recap

So what surprises there were were generally positive. All four acting winners were my personaly favorites, and while it was obvious that Day-Lewis and Bardem would win, I was very happy for Cotillard and Swinton, since I didn't think they had a real chance. Obviously I'm also happy that the Academy rewarded No Country for Old Men, a challenging and thoughtful thriller and probably the best Best Picture winner since Schindler's List, and the Coens, and even though my personal favorite for the top awards was Paul Thomas Anderson, his time will come in the decades to come.

Otherwise, hey Coens? You need to fill up on Affect, you both seem to be a couple quarts low. And who knew that Scott Rudin was gay? (Okay, a lot of people but not me.) I knew he loved to scream at and fire his assistants and underlings, but this has got to be the first time a Best Picture winner has thanked his same-sex partner, right?

On the downside, even though Robert Elswit did great work in There Will Be Blood, I would have preferred for Roger Deakins to win for Cinematography, and some small part of me was still hoping that Brook Busey-Hunt (aka Diablo Cody, I hate pseudonyms) wouldn't win Best Original Screenplay. And there were too many lame filler pieces, like the remembrance 'When I won my Oscar...' things and the stupid 'Inside Price Waterhouse' thing, that felt like they had been shot before the strike ended and included because hey, we already shot and edited them, so let's use them to pad the show out!

I ended up going 14/24 on my predictions, which is typical for me. I had no idea The Golden Compass would win for Best Visual Effects and or Elizabeth: The Golden Age would win for Costume Design, among others.

My 2008 Oscar Picks

It was a pretty good year not just for movies in general but for the Oscars: this year, there isn't a single movie nominated for Best Picture that I think is out-and-out bad, as with Crash in 2006 or The Hours in 2003. Even the weakest movie nominated this year, Juno, is pretty good, probably better than Little Miss Sunshine and definitely better than Ray or Seabiscuit. So anyway, here's my list of what I think will win and what I think should win:

Best Short Film, Animated/Live-Action:
I don't know, I don't really care. None of them could be as shitty as last year's Live-Action winner, West Bank Story. I think Madame Tutli-Putli is a good title so I'll root for it, and I hear The Mozart of Pickpockets is good so let's go with that.

Best Documentary, Feature/Short:
I regret to say that I haven't seen most of these either. I understand that No End in Sight is probably the best-made feature and while I liked Sicko, it was pretty flawed, so I have no dog in this race. Let's say No End in Sight and Freeheld.

Best Foreign Film:
Since such films as Persepolis, The Orphanage, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days and more didn't make the cut, it means that I haven't seen any of the films nominated, which means: pick the film that involves Nazis, so here's to you, The Counterfeiters.

Best Animated Feature:
Ratatouille is by far the best of these. Persepolis could pull off an anti-Pixar upset, but why would Hollywood choose to pick on the only company that reliably produces films that are both profitable and high-quality?

Best Visual Effects:
Michael Bay designed and edited the robots in Transformers in such a way that you could never really get a good look at them, and since the Academy already awarded the effects team from Pirates 2, I figure they'll do it again for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End.

Best Sound Editing/Mixing:
These could possible become part of a No Country for Old Men sweep, but I'm actually going to pull for the loud insanity of Transformers for one reason: sound mixer Kevin O'Connell is on his 20th nomination and the man's streak has to end sometime.

Best Original Song:
Oscar voters love their winners to have stories behind them, which is why I figure they'll pick "Falling Slowly" from Once.

Best Original Score:
I'd prefer for Michael Giacchino to win for Ratatouille after not even being nominated for The Incredibles, but Dario Marianelli will probably win for Atonement and that'll be just fine.

Best Makeup:
La Vie En Rose wins by being neither primarily digital (Pirates 3) nor part of a noxious movie (Norbit).

Best Editing:
The Academy tradition would be to include this as part of the Best Picture coattails, but I don't see the Academy giving an award to the fictional Roderick Jaynes, so instead Christopher Rouse will win for The Bourne Ultimatum, the film with the most editing.

Best Costume Design:
I'm going to say the Academy-traditional Atonement and that green dress, although it could just as easily be Sweeney Todd.

Best Art Direction:
This tends to go to lush period sets, so I don't see why they wouldn't give Dante Ferretti his second Oscar, for Sweeney Todd.

Best Cinematography:
Elswit won the ASC award, but I'm going to say that Oscar coattails outweigh vote-splitting and give Roger Deakins his much-deserved first Oscar for No Country for Old Men. He should get it for Jesse James instead, but who cares.

Best Original Screenplay:
I predict to be pissed off when Diablo Cody goes up to win her trophy for a movie that was rescued from its own screenplay by its director and cast. I'd love to see an upset from Tony Gilroy but my real favorite is Ratatouille.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
I have a feeling that this is where Paul Thomas Anderson gets his recognition, which is fine with me. If the Coens win, we know for sure what wins Best Picture.

Best Supporting Actor:
There's an outside chance for a Hal Holbrook upset, but it's almost certainly going to be Javier Bardem, as well it should.

Best Supporting Actress:
The year's most wide-open category, my preference is for Tilda Swinton but I have a feeling it'll go to awful mom Amy Ryan. Blanchett won just a few years ago, Ronan is too young, and Ruby Dee's role just isn't big enough.

Best Actor:
How can it not be Daniel Day-Lewis? In your face, David Poland's predictions from over a year ago.



Best Actress:
I'd love for Marion Cotillard to win, but it's very rare for a foreign-language performance to win here. Julie Christie is the likely winner, especially because she's an Academy veteran and her movie hits home with their voters, but I won't be shocked if Ellen Page upsets here.

Best Director:
Les Freres Coen.

Best Picture:
No Country for Old Men. While I have an idiosyncratic preference for the insular epic There Will Be Blood in this category and director, I won't be sorry at all if the Coens' lament in the form of a thriller takes the top price. I can imagine possible upsets from the popular Juno or the more Academy-friendly Atonement, but this seems to be the Coens' year.