Oscar Predictions

It's so close to the announcement that the only real purpose of this will be to make me look wrong, but whatever:

BEST PICTURE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

These five have been locked in for a while. Possible upset: Doubt bumps out The Dark Knight.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Another locked-in group. Possible upset: Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino.

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

A lot of people are pulling for Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, but I just don't think he has the juice or starpower - if there's an upset it's Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road bumping out Brad Pitt.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Again, some people think Melissa Leo has a chance her, but I figure her reward is in the Indie Spirit Awards - but if she bumps someone, it'll be Blanchett. One upset I hope I don't see here: Angelina Jolie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

I'd love to see James Franco here for Pineapple Express, but it's more likely that he could bump out Shannon, for his Milk performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

A big part of me doesn't really think that both Adams and Davis from Doubt will get nominations - Davis gives the stronger performance, but Adams has her budding starpower and cuteness (and a prior nomination) on her side. If either goes, it'll be Davis, ejected by Kate Winslet for The Reader. Some say Debra Winger could squeeze in here, but I find that unlikely as her role isn't showy enough, and she's not considered to be a real Hollywood insider with a lot of connections.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
David Hare, The Reader
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

The Dark Knight could pop up here and replace The Reader, but I don't see Academy voters voting so directly for comic book source material.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
J. Michael Straczynski, Changeling

I figure that the Academy will want to toss Changeling something, somewhere, so why not this category. I'd love it if the Coens or Mike Leigh could squeeze in here, but neither seems likely.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Harris Savides, Milk

After this point I start to get bored - I haven't seen any of the films on the Foreign shortlist, and only three on the Documentary shortlist, so they get a big who-knows.